Our picks and predictions for tonight's American Comedy Awards

Tonight is the return of the American Comedy Awards. Previously airing on Comedy Central the past few years, the award show is jumping over to NBC. Comedy is often considered the red-headed step child of award shows, never receiving much attention at all. Enter the Comedy Awards. The award show is today’s sole ceremony honoring achievements in comedy only. The ACA will give out awards in nineteen categories for achievements in film, TV, viral videos, and stand-up.

Many comedy icons will be in attendance tonight including Amy Poehler, Chris Rock, Stephen Colbert, Jim Gaffigan, and Bill Cosby who will receive a special tribute.

Host of Comedy Matters, Jeffrey Gurian chatted with Cosby and Gaffigan on the red carpet before the festivities.

But before the Awards air tonight, let’s break down this year’s ballot:

COMEDY FILM
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
The Heat
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Nebraska
This is the End

This one is tricky. Each candidate seemed to receive a pretty even amounts of love during their run. Nebraska received some Oscar love, but the comedy awards tend to move more towards fan approval as opposed to critic approval. This is the End and Anchorman 2 seemed to be the most talked about comedies of the year. While it felt like TITE received the most buzz all around, being as Anchorman 2 is the long-awaited sequel to one of the most beloved comedies of the millennium… I’d say Ron Burgundy and crew get the nod.

Our Pick: Anchorman 2
Prediction: Anchorman 2

COMEDY ACTOR – FILM
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Will Ferrell, Anchorman 2
Johnny Knoxville, Bad Grandpa
Simon Pegg, The World’s End
Seth Rogan, This is the End

Lot’s of popularity all around this category. While adored by man, Simon Pegg’s film kind of fizzled this year, most likely ruining his chances of winning. Again, I think it comes down to Seth Rogan and Will Ferrell. Ron Burgundy is too big of a comedy icon to lose this one.

Our Pick: Will Ferrell
Prediction: Will Ferrell

COMEDY ACTRESS – FILM
Lake Bell, In a World…
Sandra Bullock, The Heat
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said
Melissa McCarthy, The Heat
Kristen Wiig, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Well,Sandy is America’s sweetheart, but she’s not exactly a fixture in comedy. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is comedy’s sweetheart it seems, and she tends to dominate award shows in general. However, Melissa McCarthy has taken the world by storm ever since Bridesmaids. She’s become the new comedy powerhouse. Her gritty Heat character has similar moxie that people loved in McCarthy’s Megan.

Our Pick: Melissa McCarthy
Prediction: Melissa McCarthy

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR – FILM
Louis CK, American Hustle
Steve Carell, Anchorman 2
Will Forte, Nebraska
Jonah Hill, This is the End
Danny McBride, This is the End

In any award show, it’s hard running against Louis CK. However, his part was probably too minor to win this round. Steve Carell reprised his amazing character Brick Tamland, but I think the comedy community might finally shine a light on Will Forte. Forte got a lot of love for his role in the award-friendly Nebraska. With no drama categories, this might the place for Forte.

Our Pick: Steve Carell
Prediction: Will Forte

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS – FILM
Scarlett Johansson, Her
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska
Emma Watson, This is the End
Kristen Wiig, Anchorman 2

Well this is interesting. There’s many adored names on this list, but really, only Kristen Wiig is a true comedian (or at least known for her work in comedy). Best known for her SNL days (that won her Comedy Awards in the past), it seems only right for Wiig to win tonight.

Our Pick: Kristen Wiig
Prediction: Kristen Wiig

COMEDY DIRECTOR – FILM
Paul Feig, The Heat
Spike Jonze, Her
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Seth Rogan Evan Goldberg, This is the End
Edgar Wright, The World’s End

This might be one that comes down to box office success. Payne and Wright are well liked directors, but Spike Jonze’s Her was one of the biggest films of the year.

Our Pick: Paul Feig
Prediction: Spike Jonze

COMEDY SCREENPLAY
The Heat, by Katie Dippold
Her, by Spike Jonze
Nebraska, by Bob Nelson
This is the End, by Seth Rogan & Evan Goldberg
The World’s End, by Simon Pegg & Edgar Wright

Another category that might be decided by the box office and/or critics. Again, Jonze’s screenplay for Her was just too heavily adored. Hell, it won the Oscar.

Our Pick: The Heat
Prediction: Her

COMEDY SERIES
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
Saturday Night live
Veep

A pretty good crop of candidates. Parks and Recreation continues to be one of the best shows on TV, but the show hasn’t lived up to lofty bar season 4 set. Veep has been an award show darling, but freshman Brooklyn Nine-Nine has been too. Getting tons of Emmy love this year, B99 might win out. Fan approval beats out critic approval… maybe.

Our Pick: Parks and Recreation
Prediction: Brooklyn Nine-Nine

ALTERNATIVE COMEDY SERIES
Archer
Drunk History
Key & Peele
Kroll Show
Portlandia

I love Portlandia. It continues to be a unique, one of a kind gem and one of the only truly great sketch shows. It’s a crying shame Carrie Brownstein didn’t get at Comedy Award love this year, as she stood out like… something super shiny, I don’t know. However, Archer has been killing it since it’s debut. FX went ahead and ordered an unorthodox three season pick-up this spring. Also on the front line, Key & Peele. The titular duo have seen their careers soar this year, and their sketches are becoming some of the most shared viral videos.

Our Pick: Portlandia
Prediction: Key & Peele

LATE NIGHT TALK SHOW
The Colbert Report
Conan
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon

Hmm, this is a close one. Going by previous award show history, I think it will be another Stewart vs Colbert battle.

Our Pick: The Colbert Report
Prediction: The Colbert Report

COMEDY ACTOR – TV
Fred Armisen, Portlandia
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Keegan-Michael Key, Key & Peele
Jordan Peele, Key & Peele
Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

While Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key have become the hottest rising stars, I think it boils down to the more well-known Andy Samberg and Jason Bateman. Bateman might win out for the same reason Ferrell might; for playing a long-awaited reprisal. However, I’d give Samberg the edge. It’s not often a freshman show has any Emmy winners.

Our Pick: Fred Armisen
Prediction: Andy Samberg

COMEDY ACTRESS – TV
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer

This one also seems pretty close. However, Dreyfus and Poehler are the vets here. Poehler amazes me every week as Leslie Knope. This year, Knope got a new job and a new family. Also, the Emmys finally showed her some long-awaited affection. I’m all Team Knope

Our Pick: Amy Poehler
Prediction: Amy Poehler

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR – TV
Aziz Ansari, Parks and Recreation
Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Bill Hader, SNL
Tony Hale, Veep

Again, this is close. Most on the list have trophies on their shelves for these roles. Nod goes to Gob. Arrested Development is a cult fave and Gob is, in my opinion, the best character on the show.

Our Pick: Bill Hader
Prediction: Will Arnett

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS – TV
Vanessa Bayer, SNL
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Kate McKinnion, SNL
Chelsea Peretti, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Aubrey Plaza, Parks and Recreation

This is the one place SNL stars get the most love. Bayer has become a heavy hitter on the show recently, but McKinnion has the better impressions. She continually blows me away. She’s similar to Wiig in her strong skills playing crazy characters. However, Chelsea Peretti’s role as Gina on B99 has gotten a lot of attention. A lot.

Our Pick: Kate McKinnion
Prediction: Chelsea Peretti

COMEDY WRITING – TV
Arrested Development
The Colbert Report
Key & Peele
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation

Total toss up here. Parks had a lot of big shake ups this year which might help their chances. I have a slight feeling one of the dark horse contenders will end up winning this one.

Our Pick: Parks and Recreation
Prediction: Key & Peele

COMEDY DIRECTING – TV
Arrested Development
Eastbound & Down
Key & Peele
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation

Arrested Development was a meticulously crafted return to TV (or computers, whatever). I’d but a dollar on AD winning (yea, a dollar. Why would I bet serious money on these things? ).

Our Pick: Parks and Recreation
Prediction: Arrested Development

SPECIAL OF THE YEAR
Aziz Ansari: Buried Alive
Kristen Schaal: Live at the Filmore
Louis CK: Oh My God
Mike Birbiglia: My Girlfriend’s Boyfriend
Patton Oswalt: Tragedy Plus Comedy Equals Time
Sarah Silverman: We Are Miracles

Personally, I adored Kristen Schaal’s special. It was so wonderfully unpredictable, and was really the best viewer experience considering Schaal’s off-the-wall, outside-the-box, various turn of phrases approach. I wish more comedians would take more similar surreal, unorthodox chances with their comedy. Sadly, there’s just too many juggernauts on this list. Birbiglia is a strong contender with his book-turned-live show. But ultimately… it’s Louie. He’s the most admired stand-up today. Whatever reviews Oh My God got, it’s unlikely he’s lose any stand-up accolade.

Our Pick: Kristen Schaal: Live at the Filmore
Prediction: Louis CK: Oh My God

CLUB COMIC
Maria Bamford
Bill Burr
Jerrod Carmichael
Ron Funches
Kyle Kinane
Sebastian Maniscalco
Sean Patton
Brian Regan
Rory Scovel
Doug Stanhope

Big category, filled with vets and buzzworthy up-and-comers. Jerrod Carmichael’s name has been on the top of everyone’s tongue lately. He just shot his first hour special yesterday directed by Spike Lee. Right now, I feel Kyle Kinane and Rory Scovel are two of today’s favorite comedians (especially amongst other comics). Both are amazingly brilliant comedians. Scovel is one of the most exciting comics to watch live. The hardest I’ve ever laughed was at a Rory Scovel show last summer. He is not one to be missed. Of course, Bill Burr is one of the biggest names in stand-up right now (and has been for some time). He’s a staple of the NY club scene, can sell out theaters, and is Just For Laughs’ recipient of “stand-up of the year” at this year’s ComicPro Conference.

Our Pick: Rory Scovel
Prediction:Bill Burr

VIRAL VIDEO
“Bad Lip Reading: The NFL”
“Bound 3” (James Franco & Seth Rogan)
“Dead Giveaway” (Charles Ramsey Cleveland Hero Remix)
“How Animals Eat Their Food”
“Miley Cyrus: Wrecking Ball” (Chat Roulette Version)
“Sad Cat Diary”
“Sexy Pool Party”
“Taylor Swift: I Knew You Were Trouble” (Goat Edition)
“What Does the Fox Say?”
“Worst Twerk Fail EVER – Girl Catches Fire”

Meh…

Our Pick: “How Animals Eat Their Food”
Prediction: “Worst Twerk Fail EVER – Girl Catches Fire”

Who do you think will win?

Watch the Comedy Awards tonight on NBC at 9pm est.